THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(5) Miami (3-3 SU and ATS) at (4) Atlanta (3-3 SU and ATS)
After yet another blowout win in this series, this time by the Heat, this first-round matchup comes down to a deciding Game 7 with Hawks serving as host at Philips Arena and the winner headed to the second round to face the top-seeded Cavaliers.
Miami plowed past Atlanta 98-72 Friday night in Game 6, easily cashing as a five-point home chalk to snap a two-game SU and ATS skid in this series. Dwyane Wade went off for 41 points, and rookie Michael Beasley came off the bench to add 22 points and 15 rebounds. The Heat outshot the Hawks 47.3 percent to 37 percent and outrebounded Atlanta 47-36.
Atlanta got 20 points from Mike Bibby, and 13 apiece from Joe Johnson and Flip Murray, but no other Hawk scored more than seven points. Atlanta also made just 11 of 18 free throws (61.1 percent), while the Heat went 21 of 24 from the foul line (87.5 percent).
The Hawks still hold a 6-4 SU edge against Miami for the season, and the two teams have split the cash in those 10 meetings. However, going back further, Miami is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 battles with Atlanta, including 8-4 ATS in the last 12 clashes at Philips Arena. In this playoff series, all six games have been decided by double digits -- including five by 15 points or more -- and the SU winner has cashed every time.
Atlanta is 33-11 (24-19-1 ATS) at home this season, and Miami is 16-28 (21-22-1 ATS) on the road.
The Heat are on a 5-2 ATS run following a day off, but they remain on pointspread slides of 3-6 in first-round playoff games, 2-6 after a SU win of more than 10 points, 8-18-1 on Sunday and 21-44-3 coming off a SU victory.
The Hawks are on ATS dips of 3-7 against winning teams and 7-16 after a SU loss of more than 10 points, but they still sport positive pointspread streaks of 10-4-1 as a home chalk, 11-5-1 playing on one day of rest and 4-0 on Sunday.
The under for Miami is on rolls of 9-2 against winning teams, 5-0 coming off a SU win, 5-2 in the Southeast Division and 5-2 in first-round playoff games. Likewise, the under for Atlanta is on tears of 6-2 overall, 8-2 against winning teams, 5-0 on Sunday, 4-1 after a SU loss and 6-2 against Southeast Division foes.
Finally, these rivals have stayed low in eight of 10 meetings this year, with Friday’s contest falling well short of the 182-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(6) Dallas (4-1 SU and ATS) at (2) Denver (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS)
Two teams that rolled through their respective first-round playoff series will open second-round play at the Pepsi Center, where the torrid Nuggets will host the surging Mavericks.
Denver pounded the seventh-seeded Hornets, beating the spread in every game en route to a 4-1 series victory, including a 121-63 Game 4 wipeout in New Orleans that tied the NBA record for largest margin of victory in a playoff game. Denver finished things off with Wednesday’s 107-86 Game 5 rout as a 10-point home chalk.
The Nuggets’ lone loss to New Orleans was a tightly contested, 95-93 road setback in Game 3, but they still cashed as a 4½-point pup. The Nuggets averaged 108.4 ppg and allowed a stingy 84.2 ppg in the series, and their four wins came by an even more whopping average of 31 ppg (112.5-81.5). Carmelo Anthony (24.0 ppg) and Chauncey Billups (22.6 ppg) led the Nuggets in the first round, and Denver heads into the second round on an 18-4 SU tear (14-8 ATS).
Dallas knocked out the third-seeded Spurs, stealing home-court advantage with a 105-97 Game 1 win as a four-point road underdog. The Mavs dropped Game 2, then won and cashed in the last three games of the series, including Tuesday’s 106-93 road victory as a five-point ‘dog to close it out.
The Mavericks averaged 96.4 ppg against San Antonio, a few points below their season average of 101.4, but they held the Spurs to just 90.4 ppg, seven points below San Antonio’s season average. Dallas’ four wins came by eight points or more, with Dirk Nowitzki (19.2 ppg) and Josh Howard (18.8 ppg) leading the way. The Mavs are on an 11-3 SU run (9-5 ATS) in their last 14 starts.
Denver is 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight meetings with Dallas, including 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) this season. The Nuggets won three of those four games by a combined total of seven points, including a 103-101 road win catching 3½ points in their most recent battle on March 27. Denver is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes at the Pepsi Center, but the underdog is on a 6-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and the road team has cashed in five of the last seven clashes.
The Nuggets are 36-8 SU (26-17-1 ATS) at home this year, and Dallas is 20-24 SU (23-21 ATS) on the road.
Coming off their 5-0 ATS run against New Orleans, the Nuggets are on pointspread rolls of 13-4 overall, 13-3 against the Western Conference, 12-3 against winning teams, 7-1 as a favorite, 7-0 against the Southwest Division and 4-0 on their home court. The Mavericks are also on several ATS upswings, including 5-1 overall, 17-5 as a playoff pup, 6-1 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 4-1 after a SU win and 5-2 in second-round playoff games.
The over is on streaks of 8-3 for Denver at home (all as a chalk), 5-0 for Dallas on the road, 7-1 with the Mavs as a playoff pup and 20-8 for Dallas in second-round playoff games. However, the under hit in the last three games of the Nuggets-Hornets series and is 5-2 in Denver’s last seven starts, and the under for Dallas is 61-29 in its last 90 games against Northwest Division opponents.
Finally, the under is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings in this rivalry, with the last three in a row staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (10-13) at Philadelphia (12-10)
The Phillies and Mets conclude their first series of the season with John Maine (1-2, 1.34 ERA) scheduled to take the ball for New York against Joe Blanton (0-2, 8.41) at Citizens Bank Park.
The teams have split the first two games of this weekend set, with New York winning 7-4 on Friday and Philadelphia getting a bases-loaded walk in the bottom of the 10th inning Saturday to earn a 6-5 victory. The Phillies have won six of their last eight and are on additional positive runs of 36-16 overall, 31-14 at home, 6-2 against N.L. East foes and 60-29 on Sunday.
The Mets are now 4-8 in their last 12 games, and they’ve lost five of their last six on the road. Additionally, they’re in slumps of 0-6 on Sunday and 3-7 against right-handed starters. On the bright side, New York is still 8-5 in the last 13 meetings with the Phillies, including winning five of its last seven games at Citizens Bank Park.
Maine is coming off by far his best outing of the season, as he gave up just one unearned run on one hit in six innings, beating the Marlins 7-1 at home Monday. Prior to that victory, New York had lost five straight games with Maine on the mound going back to last season. With the victory Florida, New York improved to 24-7 in Maine’s last 31 starts against N.L. East rivals.
Maine is 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA in two road starts (both Mets losses), and the right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.54 ERA in nine career starts against the Phillies, with New York going 8-1 in those nine contests (3-0 in Philadelphia).
With Blanton on the hill, Philadelphia is on runs of 9-2 overall, 8-1 at home, 5-0 on Sunday and 5-1 against the N.L. East. That includes a 13-11 come-from-behind home victory over Washington on Monday, with Blanton getting off the hook despite giving up six runs on eight hits (three home runs) in just 4 1/3 innings. With that poor effort Blanton is now 0-1 with a 10.05 ERA in three home starts.
Blanton faced New York twice in interleague play with Oakland in 2005 and 2007, pitching 15 scoreless innings while yielding eight hits and one walk against 10 strikeouts. However, in his first start with the Phillies after being traded from Oakland last summer, the burly right-hander got rocked for five runs in six innings in New York, but the Phillies won 8-6.
The over is 11-5-3 in Maine’s last 19 starts overall, 4-1-1 in Blanton’s last six starts overall and 6-1 in Blanton’s last seven at home.
As a team, the Mets are on “under” streaks of 4-2-2 overall, 4-0 on Sunday and 7-3-2 against right-handed starters, and the under is 4-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last six at home. However, the over for the Phillies is on runs of 13-5-2 overall, 7-2-2 against the N.L. East and 5-1-1 when hosting the Mets.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (15-9) at Tampa Bay (10-15)
The Red Sox send struggling veteran Brad Penny (2-0, 8.66) to the mound at Tropicana Field in the finale of their four-game weekend series against the Rays, who will counter with James Shields (2-2, 3.74).
Boston pounded out a 10-6 victory on Saturday after getting drubbed in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 19-2. The Red Sox are still just 2-3 (all on the road) since ripping off an 11-game winning streak and they’ve lost 24 of their last 34 games on artificial turf. Still, Terry Francona’s troops remain on positive runs of 8-2 against A.L. East rivals, 9-3 versus right-handed starters, 7-3 as an underdog and 5-1 in the rare finale of a four-game series.
Despite winning two of three in this series, Tampa Bay is still just 4-12 in its last 16 games. However, the Rays come into today on runs of 62-26 at home, 50-21 as a home favorite and 4-2 against right-handed starters, but they have lost seven of their last 10 on Sunday.
Tampa Bay still holds a 4-2 edge against Boston in the season series. After struggling for years against the Red Sox, the Rays have had the upper-hand in this rivalry of late, winning 15 of the last 22 meetings overall and 13 of the 17 in Tampa Bay.
Penny lasted just 2 2/3 innings at Cleveland on Tuesday, giving up seven runs (four earned), but got a no-decision as the Red Sox lost 9-8, the first time in four Penny starts that Boston came up short on the scoreboard. Including Tuesday’s debacle against the Indians, the beefy right-hander is 1-0 with a 7.27 ERA in two road games. Also, in four career interleague appearances (three starts) against the Rays, Penny is 1-2 with a 5.49 ERA, though he last faced them in 2004.
Shields was a tough-luck loser in his last two starts, allowing a total of four runs in 14 innings, but losing 1-0 at Seattle and 4-3 at Minnesota. In his only home start in 2009, Shields picked up a 6-5 win over the White Sox despite getting torched for five runs in 7 1/3 innings.
Behind Shields, Tampa Bay is on positive streaks of 21-5 at home, 26-8 as a favorite and 7-0 on Sunday. However, the Rays have lost eight of his last 10 starts against Boston, including two playoff defeats last October and the 5-3 loss at Fenway Park on Opening Day, with Shields yielding all five runs. In nine regular-season starts against the Sox, the right-hander is 2-5 with a 5.59 ERA.
The Rays have stayed under the total in six of Shields’ last eight starts overall, five of his last six against A.L. East foes and four of his last five against the Red Sox, but his last six Sunday outings have hurdled the total. Meanwhile, all four of Penny’s starts for Boston have gone over the total.
The under is 8-1-1 in Boston’s last 10 on Sunday. Otherwise, though, the over for the Sox is on streaks of 15-5 overall, 9-2 on the road, 13-6-2 as an underdog and 6-1 against right-handed starters. Similarly, the over for Tampa is on stretches of 7-3 at home, 37-17 against right-handed starters and 22-7 as a home chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
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